I guess I should update more often

Submitted by poit on January 23, 2009 - 03:43.

I keep pondering an overall site update to spruce it up a tiny bit and add some features BUT...it's a lot more involved than you'd think due to version issues.  Even if I do, at my current rate of getting things done it probably wouldn't be implemented until about 2010 :\

I updated the computer parts recommendations...there's another thing I keep meaning to update.  Hmmm, maybe I should make it simpler and add some (technically useless) graphics to it.  I'm still amazed by the incredible performance available at such low prices.  Incredibly fast dual core processors are under $100, quad core processors are under $200 (not that there's any use in them yet) and reasonably good video cards actually start around $50!  Memory is also amazingly cheap...$35ish for 4gig.  I guess it's time to switch to a 64bit OS.

Global warming...yeah, if you know me I sound like a broken record (so feel free to ignore this). To sum up what I've found...

Ocean Currents: It turns out that much of the warming we experienced was (as it was in the early 1900's) a part of a perfectly natural warming cycle (which resulted in about the same amount of warming when there were only small increases in CO2).  The cycle is a result of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.  During the warm phase El Nino formation is favored resulting in significantly warmer surface water temperatures.  During the cooling phase (which we just entered last year, BTW) the oceans mix more resulting in cooler surface temperatures.  In short, NOW is the first time we've had any reason to expect to be able to see CO2's warming in action...but the temperature dropped like a rock.

Of course, solar forcing actually plays a significant role too.  According to global warming alarmists CO2 is the primary gas but is responsible for only a part of the warming.  "Feedbacks" are responsible for the rest.  Alarmists completely dismiss solar forcing because the total output of the sun doesn't vary much.  HOWEVER the actual types of energy given off by the sun vary by quite a lot. During a solar maximum the sun's magnetic field blocks the flow of energy resulting in cooler dark spots with much hotter edges.  The spots also cause huge loops of plasma to form due to twisted magnetic fields.  Because of the magnetic fields, the dark spots and the higher temperature edges the sun's ultraviolet and x-ray output skyrocket (from a minimum of 1% increase to as much as 10000% increases in xrays).  Other wavelengths drop slightly.  UV and Xrays are absorbed ENTIRELY by the atmosphere...compared to the 50% of the remaining part of the sun's spectrum that is reflected or reradiated back into space.

During a minimum the UV and Xray output drop.  During THIS minimum they've fallen much more than usual and in response another feedback mechanism has shown up.  The lower energy in the outter atmosphere has resulted in the upper atmosphere dropping by 100 miles.  This drop reduces the capture cross section of the earth by as much as 2.7% (probably less but the point is it's a feedback independent of CO2's supposed feedbacks).  Anyway, the result is a 1+% drop in the earth's energy input...a far greater affect than estimated or observed for CO2.  Finally, on top of this feedback that operates only for changes in solar forcing, whatever feedbacks on earth that would amplify CO2 forcing...will also amplify that much stronger solar forcing.

Aaaaand finally we've got the surface station network.  Long story short (too late) the weather stations used to be in the country.  They didn't move most of the stations but the areas around most of the weather stations has become much more developed.  Many are sitting right beside or actually ON large expanses of asphalt or HVAC units.  The only thing immune to this is the satellite data but unfortunately the satellites have only been around since the start of the warming phase.  The satellites are PROBABLY right and if that's the case our highest temperatures were only slightly higher than the last warm period...and about to fall to below the temperatures of the last cold phase.

Oh, BTW some think the increased cosmic ray levels resulting from the sun's drastically reduced magnetic field and solar wind might cause clouds that cool the earth.  The theory sounds reasonable but hasn't been verified.